BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 141 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

20 Dic BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 141 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a great deal of GPPs hoping I can win all of them, but I will not have lots of LUs in total this week. Aside from that, most of my play with this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best play on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I believe this is a struggle the UFC is needing him to win in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller odds of winning ITD. I believe that you may create a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about ownership. I believe this is a great place to lock in a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the work done in money games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong together with him being $600 cheaper and the gambling line being almost even. Usually when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think either of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed by what I’ve observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter at GPP lineups at a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a fight that should not go all 3-rounds. If both of these men get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter are the lower owned man of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I think that the best underdog to aim this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a clear path to victory and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability to be able to KO anybody on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends up on the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. In the first fight between both of these men Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly fast each time. If he’s in a position to end up like that again here, then I really don’t find any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long amounts of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but onto a cardI really don’t like many underdogs I believe he is the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the $9k selection. I think they need to all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK things to strike 10x and that I believe she has to receive a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and just 1 of the wins didn’t go to conclusion. She only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anybody a championship. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have greater chances of winning compared to Mueller does so that is the reason why I picked her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however when I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on zero of them.
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